Estée Lauder (EL) — Initiation

“From Volume to Value” | January 4, 2026

Initiating at BUY, $143 PT as EL exits a volume-driven reset with a structurally higher-quality earnings profile emerging
Channel mix reset away from low-quality travel retail and promotional China demand improves margin durability and inventory turns
Inventory & working capital normalization reduces markdown risk and drives a free cash flow growth inflection ahead of EPS recovery
Prestige portfolio polarization (skincare + fragrance) anchors earnings quality with low elasticity, repeat purchase, and strong gifting dynamics
Margins normalize before revenue as reduced promotional volatility enables higher incremental margins on stabilized volume
Valuation anchored to normalized earnings power, not near-term disruption: 17× EV/EBITDA on FY2030E reflects restored earnings quality and lower volatility
Re-rating catalyst: market shifts focus from backward disruption to forward earnings durability and cash generation

The RealReal (REAL) — 3Q25 Earnings Review

Maintaining BUY at $18.59 PT | November 13, 2025

Re-acceleration confirmed: 3Q results marked a clear step out of the turnaround phase, with GMV +20% YoY and revenue +17% YoY, driven by balanced unit growth, pricing, and continued mix shift toward higher-value categories
Margins inflecting meaningfully: Adjusted EBITDA margin expanded 434 bps YoY to 5.4%, reflecting stronger gross profit, improved direct margins, and tangible operating leverage across SG&A
Free cash flow growth acceleration: Free cash flow approximately doubled sequentially in 3Q, underscoring REAL’s transition to self-funded growth and improving unit economics
Guidance raised; momentum sustained: Management increased both 4Q and FY25 guidance, calling for continued GMV growth and further margin expansion, with early 2026 tracking toward the upper end of the medium-term growth outlook
Thesis reinforced: Strengthening supply trends, improving category mix, and scaling efficiencies from Athena support sustained EBITDA expansion into 2026 and an increasingly attractive risk-reward profile at current levels

"A New Dawn for Consignment" | August 7, 2024

Initiating at BUY, $6.45 PT on a structural reset toward a higher-margin, capital-light consignment model
Sunsetting direct sales eliminates inventory risk and drives meaningful gross margin expansion
Core consignment business positioned for double-digit growth as operational focus sharpens and mix improves
Leadership reset strengthens execution, with a new Chairperson and CFO bringing deep luxury and tech-enabled consumer experience
Margin expansion drives profitability inflection, with EBITDA turning positive as fixed costs are leveraged on a cleaner revenue base
Macro tailwind from Fed easing supports discretionary demand for second-hand luxury goods
Valuation reflects inflection, not peak margins: 1.3× EV/Sales on CY25E implies upside as profitability replaces survival narrative